Base case uses 5.6% annual growth — the 5-year average borrowing rate
Best case assumes growth slows to half the base rate (fiscal consolidation)
Worst case assumes growth at 1.5x the base rate (expanded borrowing)
Projections are illustrative — actual debt depends on fiscal policy, oil prices, FX rates
Starting point: $99.0B total debt (2025)
Does not account for debt restructuring, relief, or one-off securitizations