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Debt · Year by year

The debt, year by year.

Every year of the Fourth Republic — the debt total, the president in charge, and what moved the numbers. Then project it forward.

Debt Trajectory with Key Events
Annotated debt chart showing pivotal moments
1999
Return to democracy — Obasanjo inaugurated
political
2000
Minimum wage raised to N5,500
economic
2003
Banking sector consolidation begins
economic
2005
Paris Club grants $18B debt relief
debt
2006
Nigeria exits Paris Club debt — external debt drops to $3.5B
debt
2007
Yar'Adua takes office; reserves near $53B peak
political
2008
Global financial crisis — oil crashes from $147 to $36
global
2010
Yar'Adua dies in office; Jonathan becomes president
political
2011
Minimum wage raised to N18,000; fuel subsidy protests
economic
2012
Partial subsidy removal — petrol jumps to N97
economic
2014
GDP rebased — Nigeria becomes Africa's largest economy
economic
2015
Buhari elected; oil price collapse begins
political
2016
First recession in 25 years; naira devalued to N305
economic
2019
Minimum wage raised to N30,000
economic
2020
COVID-19 pandemic; second recession; oil crashes
global
2022
Ways & Means N22.7T securitized into public debt
debt
2023
Tinubu removes fuel subsidy; naira floated; petrol triples
economic
2024
Inflation hits 31.4%; minimum wage raised to N70,000
economic
2025
Total debt reaches $99B; reserves recover to $45.7B
debt
Where is it heading? — forecast to 2035
Project the debt forward under different borrowing assumptions.
▲
Best Case
▬
Base Case
▼
Worst Case

7.5%

2030
Projected Total Debt (USD Billions)
Historical data (solid) with projected scenarios (dashed)

Assumptions & Methodology

Base case uses 7.5% annual growth — the 5-year average borrowing rate
Best case assumes growth slows to half the base rate (fiscal consolidation)
Worst case assumes growth at 1.5x the base rate (expanded borrowing)
Projections are illustrative — actual debt depends on fiscal policy, oil prices, FX rates
Starting point: $117.8B total debt (2026)
Does not account for debt restructuring, relief, or one-off securitizations